When to Repair vs Replace: A Decision Framework
A simple framework that works across roofs, HVAC, appliances, and most major home systems.
- The 30% rule
- Repair < 30% of replace = repair
- The 50% rule
- Repair > 50% of replace = replace
- The age × repair rule
- If (age × repair $) > replace $ → replace
The four-question framework
- Age vs. expected life: Is this system under 50%, 50–80%, or over 80% of expected life?
- Repair vs. replacement cost: What % is the repair of full replacement?
- Failure pattern: First failure, second, or third? Repeat failures predict more.
- Upgrade leverage: Are there efficiency, safety, or insurance benefits to replacing?
Common systems quick guide
- Roof: 20+ yrs old + multi-spot leaks → replace.
- HVAC: Over 12 yrs + $1,500+ repair → replace (also: R-22 refrigerant = replace).
- Water heater: 10+ yrs + tank leak (not just valve) → replace.
- Refrigerator: Over 10 yrs + compressor or sealed-system failure → replace.
- Washer: Over 8 yrs + repair over $400 → replace.
- Windows: Failed seals + drafts on multiple units → replace.
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Repair vs replace by system
| Option | Typical cost | Lifespan | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roof (asphalt) | Repair $400–$1,800 / Replace $9,000–$16,000 | 20 yrs | Repair < 15 yrs old; replace 20+ |
| AC | Repair $300–$1,500 / Replace $4,000–$8,000 | 15 yrs | Replace if R-22 or 12+ yrs |
| Furnace | Repair $300–$1,200 / Replace $3,500–$6,500 | 20 yrs | Replace if cracked heat exchanger |
| Water heater (tank) | Repair $200–$700 / Replace $1,200–$2,500 | 12 yrs | Replace if tank leaks |
| Refrigerator | Repair $200–$600 / Replace $1,500–$3,000 | 13 yrs | Replace if compressor at 10+ yrs |
| Washing machine | Repair $150–$500 / Replace $700–$1,500 | 10 yrs | Replace if repair > $400 at 8+ yrs |
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Frequently asked questions
What's the 50% rule for repair vs replace?
If repair cost exceeds 50% of replacement, replace. Below 30% of replacement, repair. The middle range needs additional judgment on age and failure pattern.
When should I replace my HVAC?
If your system is 12+ years old and a single repair would exceed $1,500, replace. Also replace if it uses R-22 refrigerant — repairs are now prohibitively expensive due to phaseout.
How do I decide on an aging appliance?
Multiply the appliance's age (in years) by the proposed repair cost. If the product exceeds the price of a new equivalent, replace.
Should I replace a 15-year-old roof?
Not necessarily. Inspect for granule loss, soft decking, and ventilation issues. A 15-year-old roof in good shape can last 5+ more years; one with structural issues should be replaced now.
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Estimates and guidance are educational. Always confirm with a licensed local professional before making decisions.